The data underpinning the 2025 systemic risk assessment reveals a convergence of escalating risks across four interconnected domains: climate, nature, society, and the economy. The dataset spans historical records from 1990 to 2025 and incorporates forward-looking projections to 2050, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both trend acceleration and risk compounding.

Climate data

• Global mean surface temperature has surpassed the 1.5°C threshold on a 12-month rolling average, marking a critical breach of the Paris Agreement’s lower target.
• Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, particularly CO₂ and methane, are at record highs, with annual emissions continuing to rise despite international policy commitments.
• Multiple climate system tipping points (such as polar ice melt and Amazon rainforest dieback) show signs of activation, indicating a shift from linear to nonlinear risk escalation.
• Climate models, when recalibrated with observed sensitivity, suggest that previously estimated timelines for severe warming may have been overly optimistic, with the risk of catastrophic warming before 2050 now materially increased.

Nature data

• Biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation have accelerated, with several planetary boundaries for biosphere integrity and biogeochemical flows already exceeded.
• Key ecosystem services (such as pollination, water purification, and carbon sequestration) are under acute stress, threatening food and water security for large populations.
• The resilience of natural systems is declining, as indicated by declining species richness, increasing rates of habitat loss, and reduced ecosystem recovery rates following disturbances.

Societal data

• Metrics of societal stability, including conflict incidence, forced migration, and food insecurity, have all trended upward since 2015.
• Vulnerable populations are experiencing disproportionate impacts, with resource scarcity and extreme weather events driving both humanitarian crises and geopolitical tension.
• Social cohesion indicators (such as trust in institutions and perceived social justice) are deteriorating, increasing the risk of fragmentation and unrest.

Economic data

• While aggregate economic losses from climate and nature-related shocks have so far been contained, the frequency and severity of disruptive events are increasing.
• Forward projections, based on integrated assessment models, indicate a rising probability of systemic shocks leading to global GDP contraction.
• Without rapid adaptation and mitigation, scenarios suggest potential losses of up to 25% of global GDP by 2050 and 50% by 2090, driven by compounding physical, transition, and liability risks.

The data shows that risk trajectories are not only worsening but are also breaching established societal risk tolerances. Interdependencies between domains mean that shocks in one area (e.g., climate) rapidly propagate to others (e.g., food systems, financial stability). The window for effective intervention is narrowing, as feedback loops and tipping points reduce the efficacy of incremental policy responses.