Forecast Failures and the Collapse of Policy Legitimacy

Failed Predictions: Arctic Ice and Himalayan Glaciers

High-profile forecasts of an “ice-free Arctic by 2013” and the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers by 2035 did not materialize. These failures highlight the limits of model-based scenario planning and the risks of policy-driven exaggeration.

Scenario Inflation: RCP 8.5 in Policy and Finance

RCP 8.5, designed as a high-end stress test, became the default “business as usual” in IPCC summaries, media, and financial risk models. Its routine use has inflated risk estimates and shaped regulation, despite being implausible under current trends.

Fragility of Carbon Pricing and ESG Models

Carbon pricing and ESG frameworks depend on climate model outputs. Flawed inputs-implausible scenarios, overstated sensitivity, or missing regional risks-distort price signals, stress tests, and risk disclosures, undermining credibility and market efficiency.

“Policy Laundering” and Public Trust

Overstated or speculative science is sometimes used to justify aggressive interventions, from energy rationing to agricultural restrictions. This “policy laundering” erodes public trust, fuels backlash, and undermines legitimate sustainability transitions.

Synthesis and Policy Implications

  • Forecast failures and scenario misuse have eroded public trust and policy legitimacy.
  • Carbon pricing and ESG frameworks are fragile when built on deterministic, unvalidated models.
  • Probabilistic, empirically constrained scenario portfolios and transparent disclosure are essential for credible climate policy and finance.
Research Priorities:
Empirical scenario validation
Multi-pathway stress testing
Transparent model disclosure
Regional risk integration
Systemic Impacts:
Eroded science credibility
Regulatory misalignment
Mispriced risk and capital
Public backlash
Data: IPCC AR4/AR5/AR6, peer-reviewed studies, scenario analysis (2024-2025).
Dashboard structure adapted from planetarypl.com and systemic risk research.
Focus: climate modeling, scenario misuse, and policy credibility[2][3].

Forecast Failures and the Collapse of Policy Legitimacy