Energy Transition Tradeoff Dashboard (2025)
Comparative Metrics: Germany, China, Texas (ERCOT)
| Region | Renewable Share (%) | Backup Strategy | Household Price (USD/kWh) | Blackout Risk | Carbon Intensity (gCO₂/kWh) |
|---|
| Germany | ~50 | Gas + coal + imports | 0.39 | Low (managed) | ~330-360 |
| China | ~30 | Coal + hydro | 0.10 (industrial avg) | Low (state control) | ~550 |
| Texas (ERCOT) | ~30 | Gas + nuclear | 0.13 (volatile) | High (weather-sensitive) | ~350 |
Germany: Energiewende Outcomes
| Metric | 2025 Value | Notes |
|---|
| Renewable Share | ~54% | Mainly wind/solar |
| Household Price | $0.39/kWh | Highest in OECD |
| Carbon Intensity | 330-360 gCO₂/kWh | Above EU avg |
| Curtailment | ~8% | Rising, grid saturation |
| Grid Reliability | Managed by backup/imports | Fossil + France nuclear |
China: Expansion Without Illusion
| Metric | 2023-2025 Value | Notes |
|---|
| New Solar/Wind (2023) | 170+ GW | World leader |
| New Coal (2023) | 98 GW | Reliability anchor |
| Renewable Share | ~30% | Additive, not substitutive |
| Industrial Price | ~$0.10/kWh | Low, state-regulated |
| Curtailment | High in remote provinces | “Stranded renewables” |
Texas (ERCOT): Reliability Under Stress
| Metric | 2021-2025 Value | Notes |
|---|
| Renewable Share | ~30% | High wind, rising solar |
| Retail Price | ~$0.13/kWh avg | Very volatile |
| Blackout Events | 2021 (winter), 2024 (heat) | Fossil/nuclear >80% in crisis |
| Battery Storage | ~2.5 GW | Exhausted in hours (2024) |
| Backup | Gas + nuclear | Core for reliability |
Systemic Constraints
- Phasing out nuclear before fossil (Germany) increased carbon intensity and system cost.
- China treats renewables as additive to, not replacements for, coal; reliability and energy security are prioritized.
- ERCOT’s deregulation and lack of firm planning led to price volatility and blackout risk despite high VRE share.
- Each region’s transition path is shaped by unique resources, politics, grid architecture, and risk tolerance.
Data: Agora Energiewende[3], EIA AEO 2025[5], World Nuclear Association, Reuters, peer-reviewed sources, internal analytics[9][10][11].