Concentration of Foundational Resource Sectors (2025)

DomainTop Firms/ActorsMarket Share / ControlKey MechanismsSystemic Risks
Fertilizer InputsNutrien, Yara, Mosaic, CF, OCPTop 5: >60% global tradeExport bans, patents, exclusive contractsPrice shocks, supply risk, farmer dependency
Pesticides and AgrochemicalsBayer, Syngenta, BASF, Corteva, FMCTop 5: >75% global marketTrait stacking, bundled sales, litigationInput lock-in, price inflation, biodiversity loss
Water Rights and DistributionVeolia, Suez, Water Asset Mgmt, OlamTop 10: >40% privatized assetsBuyouts, trading, speculationAccess loss, price spikes, social unrest
Critical MineralsGlencore, Albemarle, Ganfeng, CNRETop 5: >70% lithium/cobalt/REEVertical integration, export controlsSupply bottlenecks, geopolitical leverage
Agricultural LandREITs, BlackRock, TIAA, Pension FundsTop 10: >5% US cropland, >10% Global SouthLand grabs, price inflation, leasingFarmer displacement, food sovereignty loss
Livestock GeneticsCobb-Vantress, Hendrix, PIC, GenusTop 4: >90% broiler/pig geneticsLicensing, contracts, genetic uniformityDisease risk, supply lock-in, resilience loss
Digital Ag Platforms and DataJohn Deere, Bayer, Corteva, SyngentaTop 5: >70% precision ag dataProprietary analytics, data lock-inFarmer autonomy loss, surveillance, dependency
Fisheries and Aquaculture GeneticsAquaGen, Hendrix, BenchmarkTop 3: >60% salmon/shrimp geneticsPatents, vertical integrationGenetic erosion, price control
Forest GeneticsArborGen, Suzano, WeyerhaeuserTop 5: >50% commercial tree geneticsPatents, long-term contractsBiodiversity loss, local operator exclusion
Energy Grids and RenewablesState grids, NextEra, Enel, mineral majorsTop 10: >60% grid/mineral accessExclusive procurement, IP, verticalityTransition bottlenecks, entry barriers

Control Mechanisms and Systemic Risks

MechanismPrevalence (2025)Implications
Patents and LicensingUbiquitous in seeds, genetics, chemicals, mineralsBlocks competition, enforces dependency
Vertical IntegrationDominant in minerals, ag, aquacultureBottlenecks, price control, market leverage
Exclusive ContractsStandard in fertilizer, chemicals, dataSupplier lock-in, price inflation
Regulatory CaptureHigh in US/EU/China input sectorsWeak antitrust, slow policy response
Artificial ScarcityFertilizer, minerals, water, landPrice shocks, supply risk, social unrest
Data Lock-in and DigitalizationRising rapidly in ag, energy, waterFarmer/producer autonomy loss, surveillance

Trends, Shocks and Policy Response (2025)

Trend/Issue2025 StatusRecent Example/Impact
Price shocks (fertilizer, minerals)Ongoing, high volatility2022-2025: >200% price swings, export bans
Land grabs and consolidationAccelerating (esp. Global South)5M+ hectares/year transferred to funds/corps
Legal/antitrust actionLimited, slow2025: Crop Protection Loyalty Antitrust suit
Environmental/social costsRising, underpricedBiodiversity loss, rural displacement, food insecurity
AI/data-driven lock-inRapidly expandingPrecision ag, predictive analytics tied to input contracts
Policy responseLagging, fragmentedFew effective antitrust or sovereignty safeguards

Market Share, Control and Systemic Risk Visuals

Sector Concentration (%)
Control Mechanisms Index
Systemic Risk Score by Domain
Data: Market reports, FAO, OECD, IEA, USGS, industry filings, antitrust litigation, 2020-2025.

Concentration and Control of Foundational Resources Dashboard