- All demand and supply numbers are from the IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024, APS/NZE scenarios, and World Bank/UN DESA supply pipeline analyses.
- Multipliers and supply gaps are calculated directly from these sources.
- Lithium demand (NZE) rises ~8× by 2040; graphite ~4×; copper demand up 2×; nickel and cobalt ~2×.
- Supply gaps for 2030 are based on announced projects and published IEA/UN DESA estimates.
Projected Demand vs. Supply for Key Minerals (2020-2040)
This line chart presents the trajectories of both projected demand and anticipated supply for five essential energy transition minerals-lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and copper-across four benchmark years: 2020, 2023, 2030, and 2040.
Demand projections are based on the IEA Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario, which models mineral requirements consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Supply estimates reflect current production and the pipeline of announced projects as of 2024.
The visualization reveals that, for all minerals, demand is set to outpace supply by 2030 and 2040, with the most pronounced divergence for lithium and graphite. This indicates a high probability of market tightness and price volatility unless new mining and processing capacity is brought online.
2040 Demand Growth vs. 2020 (IEA Net Zero Scenario)
The bar chart quantifies the multiplicative increase in demand for each mineral from 2020 to 2040 under the NZE scenario.
Lithium demand is projected to rise by more than eightfold, graphite by over fivefold, and cobalt, nickel, and copper by two- to fourfold.
These growth factors underscore the unprecedented scale of resource mobilization required to support the global deployment of batteries, electric vehicles, and renewable energy infrastructure.
2030 Projected Supply Gap (Demand minus Supply)
The bar chart displays the absolute supply gap for each mineral in 2030, calculated as projected demand minus anticipated supply (in million tons).
A positive value indicates a shortfall, with lithium and graphite showing the largest gaps, followed by nickel and copper.
These deficits highlight the urgency of accelerating investment in mining, refining, and recycling, as well as the need for policy interventions to mitigate supply chain risks and ensure the security of critical mineral flows.