Planetary P&L

Food System Resilience Under Compound Shocks (2025)

Core Resilience Metrics and Attributes

MetricDescriptionExample Indicator
DiversityVariety of food system elements serving similar purpose# of crop types, supply chain actors[3][4]
RedundancyMultiple elements serving the same function# of alternative suppliers/routes[3][4][5]
ConnectivityDegree of system interlinkage and communicationNetwork centrality, info sharing[3][4][5]
Capital ReservesBackup resources for shock absorptionStockpiles, reserve funds[3][4][5]
FlexibilityAbility to modify operations during disruptionPolicy waivers, alternative sourcing[3][4][5]
Recovery ElasticitySpeed and completeness of post-shock recovery% recovery per time unit[5][7]
Equity (Procedural, Distributional, Structural, Intergenerational)Fairness and inclusion in resilience planning and outcomesResource allocation to vulnerable groups[4]

Food System Resilience Index (FSRI) Framework

ComponentEx Ante StatusShock/StressResilience CapacityEx Post Status
Agro-ecologicalSoil health, rainfallDrought, floodDiversity, capital reservesYield, land use[5]
ProducersFarm size, input accessConflict, labor shortageFlexibility, equityProduction, income[5]
Processors/Supply ChainsCapacity, tech adoptionDisruption, diseaseRedundancy, connectivityThroughput, loss rates[5]
MarketsAccess, diversityTrade ban, price shockFlexibility, reservesPrice stability, access[5]
InfrastructureStorage, transportDestruction, breakdownRedundancy, capitalDisruption duration[5]

Compound Shock Simulation and Network Metrics

MetricDefinition2025 Example Value
Vulnerability Concentration% of output in top 3 nodes60% (global wheat exports)[5][7]
Redundancy Index# of alternative trade routes/suppliers2-4 (major grains)[5][7]
Recovery Elasticity% recovery per month post-shock10-25% (empirical range)[5][7]
Absorptive Capacity% output maintained during shock70-90% (high redundancy systems)[5]
Compound Risk ScoreProb.-weighted loss over scenariosVaries by system, scenario[5][7]

Food System Resilience Scorecard (UNDRR, 2025)

IndicatorScore (0-5)Best Practice
Diversity of food sources35 = high crop/livestock diversity[3]
Redundancy in supply chains25 = multiple backup suppliers/routes[3]
Connectivity/coordination25 = real-time info sharing[3]
Capital reserves25 = strong stocks/funds[3]
Preparedness plans35 = integrated, tested[3]
Equity in resilience25 = inclusive, just[4]

Key Gaps and Opportunities

  • Few standardized, system-wide resilience metrics; most focus on farm/local scale[5][8]
  • Limited integration of compound risk (climate, conflict, disease) in most models[5][7][8]
  • Need for network-based, simulation-driven dashboards for policy and investment[3][4][5][12]
  • Participatory metric development with policymakers, industry, and communities[4][5][12]
Data: FAO, UNDRR, Food Systems Dashboard, GAIN, FABLE, Rockefeller Foundation, peer-reviewed literature[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][12].

Resilience Metrics for Food Systems Under Compound Shocks Dashboard

Core Metrics and Structure

  • Diversity: Measures the range of crops, suppliers, or actors in the system. More diversity means less risk if a single crop or supplier fails.
  • Redundancy: Tracks the number of alternative pathways (e.g., backup suppliers, routes) available. High redundancy allows the system to reroute or substitute if one part is disrupted.
  • Connectivity: Assesses how well different parts of the food system are linked and able to communicate. Strong connectivity supports rapid adaptation and coordination.
  • Capital reserves: Refers to backup resources (stockpiles, funds) that can be used during crises.
  • Flexibility: The system’s ability to change operations, such as switching suppliers or crops, when faced with disruption.
  • Recovery elasticity: How quickly and fully the system can recover after a shock.
  • Equity: Ensures that resilience strategies are fair and inclusive, considering vulnerable groups.

Frameworks and Indices

  • The Food System Resilience Index (FSRI) breaks down resilience across the food chain: agro-ecological base, producers, processors/supply chains, markets, and infrastructure. Each component is assessed for its pre-shock status, the types of shocks it faces, its resilience capacity, and post-shock outcomes.
  • Compound Shock Simulation uses network models and Monte Carlo methods to estimate how the system performs under multiple simultaneous shocks. Metrics like vulnerability concentration (how much is at risk if a few nodes fail), redundancy index, recovery elasticity, and absorptive capacity are visualized.
  • The Scorecard rates key attributes (diversity, redundancy, connectivity, capital, preparedness, equity) on a 0-5 scale, highlighting strengths and gaps.
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