Adaptation Infrastructure as a Driver of Displacement (2025)

Land Value Acceleration Near Resilience Projects

Median assessed land value within 0.5 miles of federally supported adaptation projects rose 24% (Q2 2023-Q2 2025), compared to 7% citywide. Pre-permitting speculation is now a primary driver.
Source: National Adaptation Property Index (NAPI) 2025

Displacement Rates in Upgraded vs. Non-Upgraded Zones

In Miami’s Liberty City and Little Haiti, >50% of households reported forced relocation post-infrastructure upgrade (2017-2025). In New Orleans, population recovery in under-protected neighborhoods remains 32% below pre-Katrina levels.
Sources: UM Urban Resilience Institute 2025, HUD, NOAA

Insurance, Credit, and Bond Market Effects

Protected zones saw insurance premiums fall by 17-28% and mortgage approval rates rise by 14% (2023-2025). Municipal bond spreads in protected Miami/Houston tracts are up to 120 bps lower than in unprotected tracts.
Sources: FEMA, NAIC, Moody’s, Miami-Dade 2025

Spatial Bias in Project Siting

68% of FEMA BRIC-funded projects (2023-2025) were sited in above-median tax base jurisdictions; under-protected tracts are disproportionately Black, Indigenous, or immigrant, despite equal or greater hazard exposure.
Sources: FEMA, Urban Institute, NOAA Resilience Equity Mapping 2025

Policy Response: Displacement Safeguards and Equity Integration

By June 2025, only 6% of federally funded resilience projects included enforceable displacement protections. NYC, Boston, and LA have piloted Community Benefit Agreements (CBAs), inclusionary zoning, and right-to-return clauses, but coverage is still limited.
Sources: HUD, NYC Resilience Atlas, City of Boston, City of LA 2025

Synthesis and Systemic Risks

  • Resilience infrastructure, when not paired with equity safeguards, acts as a market signal and accelerant for displacement and spatial inequality.
  • Insurance and credit market responses reinforce the bifurcation of protected vs. unprotected zones.
  • Policy innovation is emerging but not yet scaled; most at-risk communities remain exposed to speculative pressures catalyzed by public investment.
Research Priorities:
Predictive displacement mapping
Equity-weighted project scoring
Community land trusts
Monitoring of post-project churn
Policy Risks:
Entrenched spatial inequality
Displacement of frontline communities
Market capture of public goods
Erosion of social anchors
Data: NAPI, FEMA, HUD, Urban Institute, NOAA, UM Urban Resilience Institute, Moody’s, NYC Resilience Atlas, City of Boston, City of LA (2023-2025).

Infrastructure as a Driver of Displacement