Projected Waste Streams: PV and Battery

MetricValueNotes
US solar panel waste (2030)1 million tonsFirst-gen utility-scale arrays
Global solar waste (2050)78 million tonsIRENA, 2025
PV panel recycling rate (2025)10%Rest landfilled, stockpiled, or exported
Li-ion battery recycling rate (2025)12%Rest landfilled or informally recycled
PV waste vs. global e-waste (2050)Likely to surpassPoorly regulated category
Hazardous elements in PVLead, cadmium, seleniumTrace toxicants
Hazardous elements in batteriesLi, Co, Ni, solvents, electrolytesFire & contamination risk

Composite Blade Disposal and Regulation

MetricValue/StatusNotes
Blade materialThermoset epoxy, fiberglass, carbon fiberNon-meltable, non-reprocessable
Landfilling rate (blades)DominantCapacity/acceptance limits rising
Cement kiln co-processingExpandingPartial recovery, not full recycling
US states with EPR (PV, 2025)5CA, WA, NY, OR, MA
EU WEEE for PVMandatoryBlade coverage limited
Global regulatory statusFragmentedImplementation inconsistent

Reuse, Recycling Technologies, and Economics

Technology/MetricValue/StatusNotes
PV mechanical recyclingDominantBulk glass/aluminum, low value
Hot knife delaminationPilotHigher purity, slow/expensive
Supercritical water depolymerizationLab stageNo commercial plants
Secondary glass value<10% of flat glassMarket price, low purity
High-purity Si/Ag/Cu recoveryFeasible, not adoptedProcessing cost > spot price
Design-for-recycling standardRareMost panels/blades not modular
Business model viabilityDepends on EPR, subsidy, landfill bansMarket alone not viable
Data: IRENA 2025, US EPA 2024, UNEP 2024, industry reports.

Waste Management and End-of-Life Risk