Natural Capital Inventory and Projected Expansion

Metric2025 ValueNotes
Formal road infrastructure25.2M kmWorld Road Statistics 2025
Railway infrastructure310,000 kmUIC, 2025
Informal/unmapped roadsEst. 8-12M kmWRI, UNEP, 2024
Road expansion by 2050+60% (est. +15M km)GIF, 2024
Share of new roads in biodiversity hotspots90%WRI, 2023
Critical biomes at riskAmazon, Congo, New Guinea, Western GhatsGIF, 2024
Threshold for landscape permeability loss0.6 km/km² (forests)UNEP-WCMC, 2024
Global Road Network Growth (Line)
Road Expansion by Biome (Pie)

Asset Degradation Flows and Fragmentation Impacts

ImpactQuantitative Value / TrendNotes
Gene flow reduction (mobile species)Up to 70% drop across highwaysUNEP-WCMC, 2024
Jaguar genetic islands (Mesoamerica)<20 adults per patchIUCN, 2024
Amphibian migration mortality (urban)>90%PNAS, 2023
Bumblebee foraging reduction-50% in fragmented croplandFAO, 2024
Effective habitat loss (edge effects)30–60% contractionUNEP, 2024
Wildlife-vehicle collisions (US)350M+ vertebrate deaths/yearFHWA, 2025
Insurance claims (EU, large mammals)40,000+/yearEU Commission, 2024
Fragmentation Impact by Asset Class (Radar)
Edge Effects and Habitat Contraction (Polar)

Hidden Costs and Long-Term Liabilities

LiabilityQuantitative Value / TrendNotes
Biodiversity loss (global rank)Top 3 extinction driverIPBES, 2024
Extinction debt lag50-100 yearsScience, 2023
Pollination yield decline (fragmented crops)20-40% lossFAO, 2024
Zoonotic disease outbreaks (linked to fragmentation)3 major (Ebola, Nipah, SARS-CoV-2)WHO, 2024
Ecotourism revenue loss (flagship species)Up to 80% drop post-extirpationWWF, 2024
Wildlife crossing retrofits (CA, US)$8-12M per overpassCaltrans, 2025
Amphibian culvert retrofits$200K-$1M/kmUS DOT, 2025
Insurance and ESG penaltiesRising, now material in sovereign ratingsMoody’s, 2025
Liability Accrual by Category (Pie)
Long-Term Cost Trends (Line)

Net Impact of Fragmentation (2025)

CategoryAsset Gain / PreservationLiability / Cost Accrual
Habitat ConnectivityEnables gene flow, migration, resilienceDisrupts corridors, isolates populations
Ecosystem ServicesSupports pollination, pest control, water regulationReduces productivity, weakens disease buffers
Species ViabilityMaintains viable populations, core habitatExtinctions, demographic collapse, migration loss
Economic ValueEcotourism, stable ag outputRoadkill, yield loss, retrofits, insurance, litigation
Asset vs. Liability Balance (Doughnut)
Fragmentation Net Impact (Radar)
Data: World Road Statistics 2025, UNEP-WCMC, WRI, IPBES, FAO, WHO, WWF, Caltrans, Moody’s, peer-reviewed studies.

The Fragmented Landscape